Thanks! The polynomial rules are approximations to my attempted calculation of the optimal rule. They are proper scoring rules on their own. They look close to optimal, and there is something to be said for simplicity. Deeper theory would be nice though...
What about the simulations stands out as particularly arbitrary? Presumably how agents form predictions about the opinions of others. Without stronger assumptions on agents’ rationality, it’s hard not to be little ad-hoc.
Thanks! The polynomial rules are approximations to my attempted calculation of the optimal rule. They are proper scoring rules on their own. They look close to optimal, and there is something to be said for simplicity. Deeper theory would be nice though...
What about the simulations stands out as particularly arbitrary? Presumably how agents form predictions about the opinions of others. Without stronger assumptions on agents’ rationality, it’s hard not to be little ad-hoc.